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Wednesday 9th of January Market Report

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Wednesday 9th of January 2013 as of 13:00 CET

The S&P500 futures are unchanged this morning, trading at 1452.25 and Dax futures are up 2 points at 7701. Dax have been relatively weaker compared to the S&P500 over the last 24 hours. We tested that 1445 key support yesterday, the level I was looking for to be tested on Monday actually, but better late than never.  Most markets are little changed this morning and mostly within +-0.20% move. That is really slow to say the least.
The biggest mover I see on my screen this morning is Nat Gas, which is down 1.34%.

Alcoa came out with slightly better than expected earnings figures after the close last night and also saying that global demand will recover as China’s economy rebounds.


We saw weaker than expected data from Germany again this morning, coming in at 0.2% vs. expectations of 1.0% for November. German economic minister out saying that the Q4 industrial production is likely to be weaker than Q3. That is pretty much in line with my view as well, Q4 will be weaker than expected in my opinion.

 

No major company report earnings today and we have little major economic data to go by also. I am expecting technical trading to dominate today and watch the key support and resistance levels.

 

Asia equity markets closed higher with Shanghai up 0.03%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.38% and Nikkei 225 up 0.67%.

 

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1475

7812

95.17

723

1.3350

Res 2

1470

7805

94.99

709

1.3320

Res 1

1463

7780

93.87

692

1.3105

Sup1

1450

7704

91.51

678

1.3022

Sup 2

1446

7682

90.99

659

1.2999

Sup 3

1426

7604

89.90

624

1.2896

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

13.08

13.35

22.22

25.79

7.20

100 EMA

1403

7285

91.28

728

1.2942

200 EMA

1378

7032

95.50

707

1.2879

14 Day avg. Volume

1301K

55K

109K

68K

165K

 

VIX closed down 0.17 points at 13.62 yesterday

SPY/TLT spread: 26.37 (widest level in weeks, which signals that the odds of a correction are increasing)

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – Key level support level of 1445 held and we bounce up to 1457 high overnight. Prefer higher prices today, but could go both ways. Key levels are 1445 and 1458. Keep in mind we have a big gap down to 1426 that is a worry for the bulls in the longer run, if we cannot break out cleanly in the next few sessions.

 

Dax futures – It traded to 7805 high last week and it did punch through the upper Bollinger band on daily chart at 7774, which was my upside target. A punch on the Bollinger Bands is an overbought

 

reading and I favour a move lower next to close the open gap at 7675 at least and possibly 7604 near term.  Key resistance is the upper Bollinger Bands at 7812 now.

Corn – Yesterday it closed that open gap at 677 from 3rd of July last year and we  are trading 686 this morning, so that was the point to get long as I outlined in yesterday’s report and I am looking for a move to 692 resistance at least on this bounce.

Crude Oil (Feb futures) –   It traded to a high of 93.87 yesterday and it punched through the upper Bollinger Bands on daily chart. Looking overbought and I favour a correction lower towards 91.47 support near term. The next major objective on this rally would be the 200 day EMA at 95.70.

Euro –A bit stronger bounce than I expected off that 1.30 support level over the last few days. However I still favour selling rallies and I would not be surprised to see a larger move lower next and target would be the 200 day EMA at 1.2887

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

16:30     DOE Crude Oil Inventories (exp. 0.9M)

19:00     US 10-Year Auction       

 

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Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

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