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Wednesday 23rd of January Market Report

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Wednesday 23rd of January 2013 as of 13:00 CET

The high in the S&P500 futures yesterday was 1491.50 and that is just 0.5 point of the top that Tom Demark has called for this rally, 1492. I think we are closing in on a near term top, but we have room to go to 1496 maybe.

The S&P500 futures trading down 2 points at 1487.50 this morning and Dax futures are down 2.50 points at 7705. Relatively speaking the S&P500 futures have outperformed the Dax following the fiscal cliff deal (3rd of January) and S&P500 futures are up 28.5 points since 3rd of January, while Dax is down 45 points.   

 

Asia equity markets closed higher with Shanghai up 0.41%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.18% and Nikkei 225 down 2.08%.

 

We have earnings announcements from Apple later today, which is a big gorilla in terms of market cap. Apple has a 9% weighting in the S&P500 and 10% of the Nasdaq 100.  

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1500

7807

101.14

734

1.3450

Res 2

1496

7805

99.42

732

1.3415

Res 1

1491

7790

96.78

730

1.3406

Sup1

1474

7700

94.87

723

1.3285

Sup 2

1460

7682

93.81

716

1.3164

Sup 3

1454

7604

92.58

708

1.3000

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

12.91

12.23

22.22

25.79

7.20

100 EMA

1416

7358

91.77

726

1.2999

200 EMA

1390

7120

95.35

703

1.2932

14 Day avg. Volume

1177K

88K

133K

80K

246K

 

VIX closed at 12.43 yesterday.

SPY/TLT spread: 28.86 (relatively high and good chance of a correction)

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – I am looking for a top from 1490-1496 area and I am looking for a near term move down towards 1446. Keep in mind we have a big gap down to 1426 that is a worry for the bulls in the longer run, if we cannot break out cleanly in the next few sessions above 1496.

 

Dax futures –  From last week“Failed just ahead of the previous 7805 high reaching 7790 Monday and I favour a move lower near term to close the open gap at 7675 at least and possibly 7604 near term.  Key resistance is the upper Bollinger Bands at 7812 now.” I keep the same outlook and l prefer to sell rallies today.

Corn – I am looking for more continuation higher and I favour buying dips above 723 support.

Crude Oil (Feb futures) –   It traded to a high of 96.38 today, breaking above the 200 day moving average and also punching through the upper Bollinger Bands. I am looking for a correction lower next to test the 93.80 support level next.

 

Euro – I still think it makes sense to sell towards resistance as I see this lower over more European debt problems.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

No major economic data in the US today           

 

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Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

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