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Wednesday 16th of January Market Report

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Wednesday 16th of January 2013 as of 12:00 CET

The move lower in the S&P500 futures stopped just short of the key 1454 support level yesterday and then went back up to close pretty much unchanged at 1465.50. We have been trading in a tight range for the last 3 sessions in the S&P500 futures and it is trading inside an triangle, which is building up for a breakout.  I think the breakout in either direction would now take us a good distance. I still favour the downside as I am looking for the big gap down a 1426 to be filled.  Key levels are 1472 resistance and 1454 for today.

The S&P500 futures trading down 2.50 point at 1463.25 this morning and Dax futures are down 16.50 points at 7656.

As outlined yesterday, we saw rejection of a few key resistance levels in both S&P500 futures and Dax futures Monday, which could lead to a quick move lower if we get a bit lower and the sell stops kick in.

Yen is approaching the key 90 level and focus is turning to the key BOJ meeting 21-22 January. They have show that they take the 2% inflation target seriously.

 

Asia equity markets closed higher with Shanghai up 0.70%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 down 0.07 and Nikkei 225 up 0.72%.

 

We have earnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs today and 11 other companies in the S&P500, so the earnings season is getting seriously underway today one could say.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1480

7807

95.17

734

1.3400

Res 2

1475

7805

94.99

732

1.3350

Res 1

1471

7790

94.40

730

1.3320

Sup1

1460

7700

92.90

723

1.3022

Sup 2

1454

7682

92.58

716

1.2999

Sup 3

1446

7604

91.47

708

1.2896

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

12.91

12.23

22.22

25.79

7.20

100 EMA

1406

7328

91.28

726

1.2942

200 EMA

1381

7078

95.50

703

1.2879

14 Day avg. Volume

1248K

72K

124K

80K

165K

 

VIX closed up 0.03 points at 13.55 yesterday

SPY/TLT spread: 27 (a bit lower than the previous days, but still relatively high and good chance of a correction )

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – Could not break above the previous day high Monday of 1471.50 and topped out at 1471.25. Have we seen a top? Keep in mind we have a big gap down to 1426 that is a worry for the bulls in the longer run, if we cannot break out cleanly in the next few sessions.

 

Dax futures –  From yesterday “Failed just ahead of the previous 7805 high reaching 7790 Monday and I favour a move lower near term to close the open gap at 7675 at least and possibly 7604 near term.  Key resistance is the upper Bollinger Bands at 7812 now.” I keep the same outlook and l prefer to sell rallies today.

 

Corn – I am looking for more continuation higher and I favour buying dips above 723 support.

Crude Oil (Feb futures) –   It traded to a high of 94.82 last week and the next major objective on this rally would be the 200 day EMA at 95.37.

Euro – Seems like the downside was taken out a bit by the comments from Draghi yesterday and if 1.3320 resistance is broken we could pop towards 1.34. I still think it makes sense to sell towards resistance as I see this lower over more European debt problems.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

14:30     US Core CPI (exp. 0.2%)

15:15     US Industrial Production (exp. 0.2%)

16:30     US Crude Oil Inventories (exp. 2.M)

20:00     US Beige Book 

 

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Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

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