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Tuesday 8th of January Market Report

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Tuesday 8th of January 2013 as of 13:00 CET

The S&P500 futures are little changes this morning, trading down 1 point at 1454.75 and Dax futures are up 8 points at 7739.50. The biggest mover I track this morning is Crude, which is up 0.58% at 93.73. The US budget negotiations got more tensions yesterday and that put some pressure on the markets, but still the S&P500 futures held the Friday low, which was pretty decent. I was thinking we would break lower below the 1450 support yesterday and down to at least 1445.

We have seen weaker than expected German data this morning with both Exports and Factory orders coming in below estimates at -3.4% and -1.8%.

 

Today the focus will turn to the US earnings season and the estimates are for a 2.9% earnings growth according to Bloomberg.  Alcoa will be the first to report today and we will also see earnings from Monsanto among others later today.

 

Asia equity markets closed lower with Shanghai down 0.42%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 down 0.57% and Nikkei 225 down 0.86%.

 

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1475

7812

95.17

723

1.3350

Res 2

1470

7805

94.99

709

1.3320

Res 1

1463

7780

93.87

692

1.3105

Sup1

1450

7704

91.51

678

1.3022

Sup 2

1446

7682

90.99

659

1.2999

Sup 3

1426

7604

89.90

624

1.2896

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

13.08

13.35

22.22

25.79

7.20

100 EMA

1403

7285

91.28

728

1.2942

200 EMA

1378

7032

95.50

707

1.2879

14 Day avg. Volume

1301K

55K

109K

68K

165K

 

VIX closed down 0.04 points at 13.79 yesterday

SPY/TLT spread: 27.52 (widest level in weeks, which signals that the odds of a correction are increasing)

 

S&P 500 Emini futures –It is important the previous resistance at 1450, now support, holds to avoid a move lower. Keep in mind we have a big gap down to 1426 that is a worry for the bulls in the longer run, if we cannot break out cleanly in the next few sessions.

 

Dax futures – It traded to 7805 high last week and it did punch through the upper Bollinger band on daily chart at 7774, which was my upside target. A punch on the Bollinger Bands is an overbought reading and I favour a move lower next to close the open gap at 7675 at least and possibly 7604 near term.  Key resistance is the upper Bollinger Bands at 7812 now.

Corn – Yesterday it closed that open gap at 677 from 3rd of July last year and we  are trading 686 this morning, so that was the point to get long as I outlined in yesterday’s report and I am looking for a move to 692 resistance at least on this bounce.

Crude Oil (Feb futures) –   It traded to a high of 93.87 yesterday and it punched through the upper Bollinger Bands on daily chart. Looking overbought and I favour a correction lower towards 91.47 support near term. The next major objective on this rally would be the 200 day EMA at 95.70.

Euro –A bit stronger bounce than I expected off that 1.30 support level over the last few days and trading 1.3129 at this time.  However I still favour selling rallies and I would not be surprised to see a larger move lower next and target would be the 200 day EMA at 1.2887

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

16:00     US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (exp. 46.3)

21:00     US Consumer Credit (exp. 12.9B)

 

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Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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