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Thursday 24th of January Market Report

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Thursday 24th of January 2013 as of 13:00 CET

US markets rallied again to close towards highs of the session lifted by strong moves higher in both IBM and Google, however that optimism was somewhat offset by Apple releasing earnings after the close which missed consensus forecasts and lowering revenue guidance for the current quarter, the stock traded over 10% lower in after hours. Today look out for earnings from Black and Decker ($1.28), Lockheed Martin ($1.81), Raytheon ($1.31), Bristol Myers ($0.43), AT&T ($0.45), Microsoft ($0.75), Starbucks ($0.57) and 3M ($1.41), in terms of economic data we have jobless data and leading indicators.

The underlying economic data remains relatively soft compared to the equity market performance and I wonder how long this divergence will last. At some point either economic activity has to pick up or equities will fall. I favor a correction lower in equities, but anything can happen and the key in this market is to stay flexible in the outlook and adapt as the market moves.

 

The S&P500 futures trading down 3.50 points at 1486.75 this morning and Dax futures are down 19 points at 7695.

 

Asia equity markets closed higher with Shanghai down 0.95%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.47% and Nikkei 225 up 1.28%.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1500

7807

101.62

735

1.3418

Res 2

1496

7805

99.47

732

1.3407

Res 1

1492

7790

96.90

722

1.3362

Sup1

1483

7673

94.91

716

1.3264

Sup 2

1474

7632

93.58

708

1.3164

Sup 3

1459

7604

92.83

687

1.3000

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

10.21

11.90

19.30

25.79

8.58

100 EMA

1418

7380

92.46

726

1.3019

200 EMA

1392

7141

95.74

706

1.2950

14 Day avg. Volume

1316K

88K

133K

98K

255K

 

VIX closed up 0.03 points at 12.46 yesterday.

SPY/TLT spread: 29.28 (relatively high and good chance of a correction)

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – I am looking for a top from 1490-1496 area and I am looking for a near term move down towards 1446. Keep in mind we have a big gap down to 1426 that is a worry for the bulls in the longer run, if we cannot break out cleanly in the next few sessions above 1496.

 

Dax futures –  From last week“Failed just ahead of the previous 7805 high reaching 7790 Monday and I favour a move lower near term to close the open gap at 7675 at least and possibly 7604 near term.  Key resistance is the upper Bollinger Bands at 7812 now.” I keep the same outlook and l prefer to sell rallies today.

Corn – The break below 723 support opens for a slide towards key 708 pivot level. I would look to put on a bullish strategy if we get below 710 for a bounce back towards 723 resistance.

 

Crude Oil (Feb futures) –   It traded to a high of 96.98 yesterday, breaking above the 200 day moving average and also punching through the upper Bollinger Bands. I am looking for a correction lower next to test the 93.50 support level next.

Euro – I still think it makes sense to sell towards resistance as I see this lower over more European debt problems. Near term target would be 1.3264 support.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

14:30     US Weekly Jobless Claims (exp. 359K)

16:00     US Flash Manufacturing PMI (exp. 53.2)

17:00     DOE Crude Oil Inventories (exp. 2.8M)

 

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Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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