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Monday 7th of October Market Report

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Monday 7th of October 2013 as of 14:00 CET

Equity markets are lower this morning with the DAX down 0.89% and the S&P500 futures down 0.83% at the time of writing. The US nonfarm Payrolls did not get published Friday because of the shutdown and we are seeing massive headline risk on both the upside and downside as long as these situation continues. The US shutdown is getting a bigger problem each day and for every week the shut down goes on it is expected to cut 15bps of Q4 GDP.

We have seen good volume in the current area of the S&P500 futures and ranges have gotten tighter over the last week and it looks like prices are getting ready to break out. Which way  the market breaks remains to be seen, but key levels on the S&P500 are 1681 resistance and 1661 and 1648 support.

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

VIX closed at 16.74 on Friday.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1702

8686

105.59

470

1.3657

Res 2

1697

8653

105.13

464

1.3639

Res 1

1681

8566

104.06

459

1.3575

Sup1

1671

8510

102.36

434

1.3505

Sup 2

1661

8456

102.20

427

1.3460

Sup 3

1648

8412

101.46

420

1.3390

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

16

17

21.13

30.89

7.73

100 EMA

1644

8303

100.03

497

1.3279

200 EMA

1595

8098

97.94

528

1.3202

14 Day avg. Volume

1606K

82K

165K

85K

159K

 

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – The open gap down at 1663 was filled last week and we have key support at 1661 and 1648 now.  We have key resistance at 1681 and 1695, which needs to be taken out to avoid a selloff in the next few sessions.  On daily chart is looks like we have a bearish formation in form of a triangle.

Dax futures – Gap at 8528 is finally filled and it might bounce off that 8510 support line, but overall the daily

Corn –  Rolled to the December contract and we have good support around the 454 level and as long as this level holds there is potential for a move higher. If 454 is broken, the key support at 429 is within reach.

Crude – Going lower and lower over the last week and there is rising support at 101.40, which needs to hold today to avoid a sell off to 98.40.

Euro – Looks like a potential near term top at 1.3653 from last week and I am looking for a move lower towards 1.3504 support next. However keep in mind that October has been a very strong month over the last years for the Euro, so maybe not the right time to be very bearish?

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

21:00     US Consumer Credit (12.6B)

 

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Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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