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Monday 7th of January Market Report

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Monday 7th of January 2013 as of 13:00 CET

The US employment report came out a bit stronger than expected at 155K on Friday, beating the estimate of 150K. The unemployment rate stayed at 7.7%.

It seems to be more focus this morning on the next wave of deficit negotiations that will take place in Washington over the next 8 weeks and this can be an ugly battle.

The Q4 earnings announcements will start tomorrow as well and focus will turn towards that in the next few weeks.

The new Basel rules was released over the weekend and they are looser than first expected, leading to a rally in Bank stocks in Europe this morning,

 

Asia equity markets closed mixed Shanghai up 0.46%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 down 0.14% and Nikkei 225 down 0.83%.

 

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1475

7850

95.17

735

1.3350

Res 2

1470

7805

94.99

723

1.3320

Res 1

1463

7780

93.87

709

1.3105

Sup1

1450

7720

91.51

687

1.3022

Sup 2

1446

7707

90.99

677

1.2999

Sup 3

1426

7604

89.90

659

1.2896

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

13.86

14.60

25.03

29.70

7.79

100 EMA

1400

7266

91.28

731

1.2934

200 EMA

1376

7023

95.50

708

1.2887

14 Day avg. Volume

1391K

57K

109K

71K

165K

 

VIX closed down 0.12 points at 14.56 last, but it is still almost a point higher than what is was when the S&P500 traded at these levels last time.

SPY/TLT spread: 26.50 (widest level in weeks, which signals that the odds of a correction are increasing)

 

S&P 500 Emini futures –It is important the previous resistance at 1450 support now holds, to avoid a move lower. Keep in mind we have a big gap down to 1426 that is a worry for the bulls in the longer run, if we cannot break out cleanly in the next few sessions.

 

Dax futures – It traded to 7805 high Wednesday and it did punch through the upper Bollinger band on daily chart at 7774, which was my upside target. A punch on the Bollinger Bands is a overbought reading and I favour a move lower next to close the open gap at 7675 at least and possibly 7604 near term.  

Corn – It has an open gap at 677 from 3rd of July last year that is still open and I am looking for this to be filled shortly. Could be interesting to look at a bullish strategy down towards 677 for a bounce.

Crude Oil (Feb futures) –   It traded to a high of 93.87 yesterday and it punched through the upper Bollinger Bands on daily chart. Looking overbought and I favour a correction lower towards 91.47 support near term. The next major objective on this rally would be the 200 day EMA at 95.70.

Euro –I would not be surprised to see a larger move lower next and target would be the 200 day EMA at 1.2887. I favour selling any type of rally for the time being.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

No major economic release today

 

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Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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