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Monday 28th of January Market Report

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Monday 28th of January 2013 as of 12:00 CET

Asian markets are firmer for choice this morning as evidence showed that Chinese corporate earnings continue to improve. China's Shanghai composite closed up over 3% at levels not seen since June of last year. The Nikkei is slightly lower despite another day of Yen weakness.

 

European equity futures are slightly firmer this morning after markets closed at or near session highs on Friday. The Euro this morning is subdued just shy of the 1.35 level. The ECB's Coene said the Eurozone would likely have to fall back into recession before the ECB would consider lowering interest rates further.

 

In the US, markets closed at session highs on Friday bolstered by better than expected corporate earnings, today Caterpillar ($1.71) and Yahoo (28c) are among names reporting. For economic data look out for durable goods orders, pending home sales and the Dallas Manufacturing index.

 

The S&P500 futures trading unchanged at 1495.75 this morning and Dax futures are up 3 points at 7855.50.

 

Asia equity markets closed mixed with Shanghai up 3.12%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.52% and Nikkei 225 down 0.94%.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1512

7950

101.62

735

1.3517

Res 2

1500

7900

99.47

732

1.3500

Res 1

1499

7888

96.90

722

1.3483

Sup1

1486

7804

94.91

716

1.3420

Sup 2

1482

7758

93.58

708

1.3353

Sup 3

1471

7657

92.83

687

1.3260

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

11.58

11.11

20.95

20.55

8.44

100 EMA

1420

7397

92.53

726

1.3035

200 EMA

1393

7154

95.72

706

1.2962

14 Day avg. Volume

1316K

97K

133K

98K

264K

 

VIX closed up 0.20 points at 12.89 Friday.

SPY/TLT spread: 32.22 (highest level seen in months)

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – It seems that I was a bit early on calling a top as we traded to a high of 1497 yesterday.  I still think it will make a move lower next, but calling a top is always very difficult.  First major target to the downside is now 1471 support. Keep in mind we have a big gap down to 1426 that is a worry for the bulls in the longer run.

 

Dax futures – We broke above the 7805 key resistance Friday and trading up to a high of 7888 so far this morning. This move has made a punch through the upper Bollinger Bands on daily chart (7850), which signals to me that we are overdone on the upside for the near term and we should back off a bit lower at least. The 200 day moving average is also 698 points below the current price. That also signals that price is getting a bit overbought. My first downside target is 7657 support.

 

Corn – The break below 723 support opens for a slide towards key 708 pivot level. I would look to put on a bullish strategy if we get below 710 for a bounce back towards 723 resistance.

Crude Oil (Feb futures) –   It traded to a high of 96.98 last week, breaking above the 200 day moving average and also punching through the upper Bollinger Bands. I am looking for a correction lower next to test the 93.50 support level next.

Euro – I still think it makes sense to sell towards resistance as I see this lower over more European debt problems. Near term target would be 1.3264 support.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

14:30     US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (exp. 0.8%)

16:00     US Pending Home Sales (exp. 0.5%)

16:30     US Dallas Manufacturing Index (exp. 3.0)

 

 

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Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

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