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Monday 21st of January Market Report

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Monday 21st of January 2013 as of 13:00 CET

The markets in the US will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Holiday and the CME will close at 1030 local time. So I expect the markets will be very slow in the European trading session today.  S&P 500 futures traded up to a new multi year high of 1481 on Friday on average volume. Demark is calling a top of 1492 on this rally and the upper Bollinger Band is at 1496. I think we are closing in on a near term top, but we have room to go to 1496 I think.

The S&P500 futures trading up 0.75 point at 1479.75 this morning and Dax futures are up 17 points at 7735.  

We have the BOJ announcement tomorrow that is key for the Yen, so watch out.

 

Asia equity markets closed higher with Shanghai up 0.60%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.13% and Nikkei 225 down 1.52%.

 

We have no earnings announcements out of the US today.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1480

7807

96.23

734

1.3450

Res 2

1475

7805

96.05

732

1.3415

Res 1

1471

7790

95.66

730

1.3406

Sup1

1460

7700

94.81

723

1.3285

Sup 2

1454

7682

93.81

716

1.3164

Sup 3

1446

7604

92.58

708

1.3000

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

12.91

12.23

22.22

25.79

7.20

100 EMA

1413

7358

91.77

726

1.2999

200 EMA

1388

7120

95.35

703

1.2932

14 Day avg. Volume

1316K

88K

133K

80K

246K

 

VIX closed down 1.11 points at 12.46 Friday. Multi year low

SPY/TLT spread: 28.29 (relatively high and good chance of a correction)

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – Could not break above the previous day high Monday of 1471.50 and topped out at 1471.25. Have we seen a top? Keep in mind we have a big gap down to 1426 that is a worry for the bulls in the longer run, if we cannot break out cleanly in the next few sessions.

 

Dax futures –  From last week“Failed just ahead of the previous 7805 high reaching 7790 Monday and I favour a move lower near term to close the open gap at 7675 at least and possibly 7604 near term.  Key resistance is the upper Bollinger Bands at 7812 now.” I keep the same outlook and l prefer to sell rallies today.

Corn – I am looking for more continuation higher and I favour buying dips above 723 support.

Crude Oil (Feb futures) –   It traded to a high of 96.13 last week, breaking above the 200 day moving average and also punching through the upper Bollinger Bands. I am looking for a correction lower next to test the 93.04 support level next.

 

Euro – Seems like the downside was taken out a bit by the comments from Draghi yesterday and if 1.3320 resistance is broken we could pop towards 1.34. I still think it makes sense to sell towards resistance as I see this lower over more European debt problems.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

US Bank Holiday             

 

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Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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