KBR Capital Partners

Log in   

Login to your account

  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  

KBR Capital Partners Blog

market insight and commentary on futures markets

  • Home
    Home This is where you can find all the blog posts throughout the site.
  • Categories
    Categories Displays a list of categories from this blog.
  • Tags
    Tags Displays a list of tags that have been used in the blog.
  • Bloggers
    Bloggers Search for your favorite blogger from this site.
  • Team Blogs
    Team Blogs Find your favorite team blogs here.
  • Login
    Login Login form

Friday 4th of January Market Report

Posted by on in Market Reports
  • Font size: Larger Smaller
  • Hits: 1977
  • 0 Comments
  • Subscribe to this entry
  • Print

Friday 4th of January 2013 as of 13:00 CET

The FOMC minutes out last night was less dovish than expected and pretty much every market sold off following the news. Especially gold, silver and Euro took a hit yesterday.  The FOMC minutes showed that several of the members wanted to end the QE earlier than expected. This is of course bearish for assets that have gone up a lot on the endless QE thought, like gold and silver. I think we could be looking at 1400USD gold and 25 USD silver in Q1 or so if this thought gets more focus.

Gold is down 2.3% at the time of writing and silver down 3.85% at the time of writing. S&P500 futures are pretty much unchanged at 1453 and Dax is down 0.21% at 7744.

 

The big focus today will be the US nonfarm payrolls report out at 14:30, the market expectations are for 145K increase compared to previous month’s number of 146K. The unemployment rate is expected to stand at 7.7%. The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 16:00 is also a potential market mover, expected at 54.2 vs. 54.7 last month.

 

Asia equity markets closed higher mixed Shanghai up 0.06%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 down 0.36% and Nikkei 225 up 2.82%.

 

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1470

7850

95.17

735

1.3350

Res 2

1462

7805

94.99

723

1.3320

Res 1

1459

7780

93.87

709

1.3309

Sup1

1446

7720

91.46

687

1.3103

Sup 2

1426

7707

90.99

677

1.3047

Sup 3

1405

7604

89.90

659

1.3000

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

13.86

14.60

25.03

29.70

7.79

100 EMA

1400

7266

91.26

731

1.2934

200 EMA

1376

7023

95.75

708

1.2887

14 Day avg. Volume

1315K

59K

107K

71K

149K

 

VIX closed down 0.12 points at 14.56 last, but it is still almost a point higher than what is was when the S&P500 traded at these levels last time.

SPY/TLT spread: 26.50 (widest level in weeks, which signals that the odds of a correction are increasing)

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – Closed just a few points within the high from last year (1461.75), but the huge up move the last couple of sessions is likely to take breather ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report. A strong NFP should be the next catalyst to break into new highs. It is important the previous resistance at 1446 now holds, to avoid a move lower. Keep in mind we have a big gap down to 1426 that is a worry for the bulls in the longer run, if we cannot break out cleanly in the next few sessions.

 

Dax futures – It traded to 7805 high Wednesday and it did punch through the upper Bollinger band on daily chart at 7774, which was my upside target. A punch on the Bollinger Bands is a overbought reading and I favour a move lower next to close the open gap at 7675 at least and possibly 7604 near term.  

 

Corn – It has an open gap at 677 from 3rd of July last year that is still open and I am looking for this to be filled shortly. Could be interesting to look at a bullish strategy down towards 677 for a bounce.

Crude Oil (Feb futures) –   It traded to a high of 93.87 yesterday and it punched through the upper Bollinger Bands on daily chart. Looking overbought and I favour a correction lower towards 91.47 support near term. The next major objective on this rally would be the 200 day EMA at 95.70.

Euro – The rally Wednesday failed just ahead of the 1.33 resistance and it is trading much lower this morning, down almost 190 pips off that yesterday high (1.3289) at this time. That was the 4th rejection of the 1.33 level over the last 2 weeks and I would not be surprised to see a larger move lower next and target would be the 200 day EMA at 1.2887. I favour selling any type of rally for the time being.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

14:30     US Nonfarm Payrolls (exp. 145K)

14:30     US Unemployment Rate (exp.  7.7%)

16:00     US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (exp. 54.2)

16:30     US Natural Gas Storage (exp. -129B)

17:00     Crude Inventories (exp. -0.7M)

21:30     Feds Yellen Speaks

 

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                    

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

0

Comments