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Friday 25th of January Market Report

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Friday 25th of January 2013 as of 13:00 CET

Japan moved sharply higher overnight after data released for CPI showed a 0.2% fall, suggesting further stimulus measures will be implemented, the Yen is trading above 90 and is set for it's 11th straight weekly loss. Korea's index was dragged lower by Samsung which traded 3% lower despite releasing better than expected earnings after saying the stronger Won is hurting profitability.

 

In the US markets were stronger yesterday with the S&P briefly trading above the psychological 1500 level boosted by better corporate earnings and jobless claims numbers. Microsoft was trading modestly lower after the close after releasing earnings. Today we have earnings from Honeywell ($1.10), Proctor and Gamble ($1.11) and Halliburton (61c).

 

We saw better than expected US weekly jobless claims, which was the S&P500 futures trade up to a high of 1497.75.

I still favor a correction lower in equities, but anything can happen and the key in this market is to stay flexible in the outlook and adapt as the market moves.

 

The S&P500 futures trading up 3.75 points at 1496.50 this morning and Dax futures are up a whopping 97.50 points at 7849 following stops getting triggered on the break above 7810.

 

Asia equity markets closed mixed with Shanghai down 0.43%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.52% and Nikkei 225 up 2.88%.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1507

7950

101.62

735

1.3418

Res 2

1500

7900

99.47

732

1.3407

Res 1

1497

7856

96.90

722

1.3362

Sup1

1483

7805

94.91

716

1.3264

Sup 2

1474

7758

93.58

708

1.3164

Sup 3

1459

7657

92.83

687

1.3000

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

10.21

11.90

19.30

25.79

8.58

100 EMA

1418

7388

92.53

726

1.3019

200 EMA

1392

7151

95.72

706

1.2950

14 Day avg. Volume

1316K

88K

133K

98K

255K

 

VIX closed up 0.23 points at 12.69 yesterday.

SPY/TLT spread: 29.74 (relatively high and good chance of a correction)

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – It seems that I was a bit early on calling a top as we traded to a high of 1497 yesterday.  I still think it will make a move lower next, but calling a top is always very difficult.  I am looking for a near term move down towards 1446. Keep in mind we have a big gap down to 1426 that is a worry for the bulls in the longer run, if we cannot break out cleanly in the next few sessions above 1496.

 

Dax futures –  We broke above the 7805 key resistance this morning and shooting up to a high of 7856 so far. This move has made a punch through the upper Bollinger Bands on daily chart, which

 

signals to me that we are overdone on the upside for the near term and we should back off a bit lower at least. The 200 day moving average is also 698 points below the current price. That also signals that price is getting a bit overbought.

Corn – The break below 723 support opens for a slide towards key 708 pivot level. I would look to put on a bullish strategy if we get below 710 for a bounce back towards 723 resistance.

Crude Oil (Feb futures) –   It traded to a high of 96.98 yesterday, breaking above the 200 day moving average and also punching through the upper Bollinger Bands. I am looking for a correction lower next to test the 93.50 support level next.

Euro – I still think it makes sense to sell towards resistance as I see this lower over more European debt problems. Near term target would be 1.3264 support.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

16:00     US New Home Sales (exp. 387K)

 

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Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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