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Posted by on in Uncategorized

Markets are little changed this morning across the contracts that I monitor closely. Equities tested lower as expected yesterday and then found support just above the 2 day low in the S&P500 futures and rallied into the close. Watch out for the Consumer Confidence and housing data later today that could spark some directional trading out of the recent sideways pattern.

 

Euro Slips With Spain Bonds as Commodities Gain Before U.S. Data – Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-25/oil-metals-rebound-as-nikkei-225-gains-before-dividend-deadline.html

 

Technical’s

 

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1475

7500

95.09

791

1.3185

Res 2

1468

7483.5

94.08

760

1.307

Res 1

1462.25

7445.5

93.84

751

1.299

Sup1

1451.5

7385

90.5

736

1.2859

Sup 2

1443

7307

89.47

731

1.2766

Sup 3

1432

7280

87.22

702.5

1.2654

ATM calls Vols Oct. exp

11,84

16.35

30

25.8

9.1

100 EMA

1341

6825

93.98

719

1.2601

200 EMA

1307

6589

96.96

672

1.2823

14 Day avg. Volume

1388K

113k

159K

117K

260K

 

Asian stock markets closed mixed with Shanghai down 0.24%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 down 0.29% and Nikkei 225 up 0.25%

 

S&P 500 e-mini December futures – The 2 day low of 1443 held yesterday as well and we rallied into the close on low volume, so not sure if that move will extend early on today. That 1443 support level is key.

Dax futures - The volume on the break above 7450 was not convincing so not sure how much more upside we have at the moment. If we trade below 7385 for more than 5 minutes, the market is rather weak and we could quickly move down to 7300 support.

The VIX closed up 0.17 points at 14.15 yesterday, which is much higher compared to 13.30 level that we saw last time S&P 500 futures were up at these levels, so that one looks overpriced.

Corn – It found support at the 740 level on over several days last week and I suspect we will see a bit of an bounce next. I see support at 738 and minor resistance at 760 followed by strong resistance at 780. Develop

Crude Oil –  We traded up to 93.84 on Friday, but could not break above 94, so the path of least resistance was to go down lower again to check for supply. If we get another drive lower on low volume it might be worth looking to go long with stop below 90.50. Brent is outperforming vs. crude of late and the premium as above 18 USD per barrel again.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

15:00     ECB’s Draghi speaks

15:00     S&P/CS Composite- 20 HPI (exp. 1.3% y/y)

16:00     US CB Consumer Confidence (exp 63.1)

19:30     Treasury Sec Geithner speaks  

 

Contact info:
Per-Erik Karlsson                                           

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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Posted by on in Uncategorized

Monday 24th of September 2012 as of 12:00 CET

German IFO data came out weaker than expected this morning at 101.4 vs. market consensus of 102.6, dropping for the 5th straight month according to Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-24/german-business-confidence-unexpectedly-fell-in-september-1-.html

The S&P500 futures are trading lower by 6 points and European markets are lower as well. It looks like we have the normal test lower early Monday to check the strength of the markets. We have seen this pattern of numerous Monday’s over the last months as traders move out of the market over the weekend and test the market lower to check for supply before they enter the market long.

Asian stock markets closed mixed with Shanghai up 0.75%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 down 0.52% and Nikkei 225 down 0.45%

Looking at the S&P 500 e-mini December futures, we are close to testing the low from last week of 1443 and I think if we break below this level and take out 1436 this week we have potential for a deeper correction. However above 1443 it looks still bullish.

Dax futures made a new yearly high Friday, trading to 7483 and it looks bullish above 7390 support for the time being. The volume on the break above 7450 was not convincing so not sure how much more upside we have at the moment.

The VIX closed down 0.09 points at 13.98 Friday, which is much higher compared to 13.30 level that we saw last time S&P 500 futures were up at these levels, so that one looks overpriced.

Corn – It found support at the 740 level on over several days last week and I suspect we will see a bit of an bounce next. I see support at 738 and minor resistance at 760 followed by strong resistance at 780. Develop

Crude Oil –  I said Friday “Held the 90.50 USD per barrel level and I think we have potential to trade back to 94 level that is prior support level and now pretty strong resistance. We have major support at 90.50 and 87.23.” We traded up to 93.84 on Friday, but could not break above 94, so the path of least resistance was to go down lower again to check for supply. If we get another drive lower on low volume it might be worth looking to go long with stop below 90.50.  

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

21:30     FOMC Williams speaks

 

Contact info:
Per-Erik Karlsson                                           

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

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Posted by on in Uncategorized

Tuesday 18th of September 2012 as of 11:06 CET

Yesterday’s price action in the S&P 500 futures, signals a potential weak market and we are lower by 3.25 points at the time of writing, indicating more weakness today, but I think it could be smart to wait for confirmation regarding the statement.

I repeat my comment from yesterday’s report regarding potential weakness:

“It looks like we have typical Monday morning action so far, as markets are testing lower to see if the market is still strong following last week’s rally. This action happens quite a lot as traders often goes flat ahead of the weekend and like to test the market lower early Mondays to see it there is still strength. If the market is strong the dip will be pretty shallow and it will then find support and continue to rally. If weak the market will just trend lower throughout the day and close at the lows on increasing volume compared to the last 2 trading days.”

Asian stock markets mostly lower with Shanghai down 1.5% and Hong Kong down 0.4% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3%. The Japanese equity markets were closed for a public Holiday.

Stocks, Euro Fall as Spain Yields Climb; Commodities Drop - Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-18/asia-emerging-currencies-drop-with-copper-as-china-stocks-fall.html

Dax futures are down close to one percent and we are approaching the 3 day low of 7274 that should provide support if this rally is going to extend higher. We have broken that 7382 support level that halts the “uberbullish” momentum seen last week.

Regarding the S&P 500 Sep futures I repeat my comment from yesterday: “The S&P 500 futures made a new yearly highs Friday, but got rejected at 1475 level and closed quite some distance lower at 1466.25, which is a warning signal that we might have a near term top in place. I still expect that the

 

QE story will support prices on dips and we need to see an increase in volume to the downside to really have any chance of any larger correction at this point.” I see minor support at 1457.50 and major support at 14838.75.

The VIX closed up 0.08 points at 14.59 Friday, which is much higher compared to 13.30 level that we saw last time S&P 500 futures were up at these levels, so that one looks overpriced.

Corn – Came down 4.32% yesterday and I mentioned yesterday in the morning report that the rejection up at 789 was a bearish signal and boom down we went. It went down to 747, which is just above a prior resistance level 11/7 high of 746. So should a bit potential to bounce here, if not we are going much lower. Soybeans and wheat also took a beating, down 4% and 5% respectively. 

Crude Oil – Could not break above the 101 key resistance level yet and we have fallen back below 99 USD level mark this morning. We have major resistance at 101.26, which is the high from 4th of May and we also have the overhead channel resistance right above 101. So this level is the major point to watch today. We have an open gap at 103.40 from 3rd of May that I keep in mind. Minor support at 96.31 and major support at 94.08.

Crazy action on the options expiration last night, read more here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-17/crude-fluctuates-on-middle-east-tension-empire-state-index-drop.html

We have 2 Fed speakers out later today, with Fed’s Evans speaking early and Lacker speaking later in the evening. Keep in mind that Evans will replace Lacker next year as a voting member on the FOMC and Evans is dovish. Lacker is the dissenting vote on FOMC and hawkish.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

14:30     US Current Account

15:00     US TIC flows

17:30     Feds Dudley speaks

 

Contact info:
Per-Erik Karlsson                                           

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

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