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Posted by on in Uncategorized

Wednesday 10th of October 2012 as of 10:00 CET

Dax and S&P500 futures are trading right around the unchanged mark this morning following a weak close last night, where most of the equities indices closed below the 3 day low. This confirms the recent uptrend is broken and opens for sideways or more downside. To get bearish I would like to take out a few more downside support level, because at the current level I still see risk for a bounce in the near term. Volatility is mostly higher in most markets in the options market. Nikkei closed down almost 2 percent overnight leading to early weakness.

Media reports suggest that EU, including Germany will agree on a recapitalisation of the banks, but Germany is insisting that a banking union should be in place first. A interesting point regarding the Asian slowdown, Korean and Taiwan exports have started to rebound, which brings some hope that the slowdown might be starting to turn.

Most European Stocks Drop as IMF Sees Bank Asset Sell-Off - Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-10/european-stock-futures-drop-as-imf-sees-bank-asset-sales.html

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1463

7382

94.08

791

1.3079

Res 2

1457

7329

93.84

767

1.2990

Res 1

1443

7285

93.10

758

1.2974

Sup1

1428

7230

89.02

739

1.2915

Sup 2

1423

7207

88.21

704

1.2814

Sup 3

1414

7176

87.52

681

1.2766

ATM calls Vols. nearby month expiration

14.09

16.35

30.95

28.37

10.30

100 EMA

1379

6917

96.34

724

1.2690

200 EMA

1332

6693

98.69

675

1.2816

14 Day avg. Volume

1399K

111K

191K

106K

252K

Asian stock markets closed mixed with Shanghai up 0.17%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.32% and Nikkei 225 down 1.98%.

S&P 500 Emini futures – It closed below the key 1443 support level and we traded much lower closing at 1434, confirming the weakness I outlined yesterday. Key support is now 1423 that is the last reaction low, which if broken opens for 1414 first, then potentially 1388. Vols are higher this morning and above 14% mark on the ATM calls for October expiration.

The VIX closed up 1.26 points at 16.37 yesterday, which is the higher end of the recent 7 days range.

Dax futures – We still have rising support at 7230 that was broken yesterday and closed right below it. Next key level is 7207 that is the last reaction low that needs to hold to avoid a bigger sell off.

Corn – Pretty much range bound last week with high of 767 and low of 739, leading to a decent drop in the Vols of the ATM calls. CIS came out with better than expect crop yield data Thursday that is much higher than the USDA data, which capped the rally potential last week. Technically it looks well supported above 739 and might be interesting to buy low volume pull backs above this level.

Crude Oil – All over the place last week and the underlying supply situation indicates lower prices is the most likely, but Middle East tensions is a potential big risk. Big rebound yesterday, but need to get above the 93.84 key resistance to get things moving higher. 

Euro – Trading like a yo-yo last sessions. It looks to me like the European debt crisis will continue to be the negative headline for the Euro and I question if we can get above the 1.3200 resistance level in the near term. Key support is 1.2814 that needs to hold to avoid a bigger sell off.

We have no major economic data out of the US today and watch for comments out of Ecofin meeting and developments out of Middle East to give direction to the markets.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

20:00     US Beige Book

22:30     Feds Tarullo speaks

 

Contact info:
Per-Erik Karlsson                                           

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

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Posted by on in Uncategorized

Wednesday 3rd of October 2012 as of 13:00 CET

More or less unchanged at the time of writing in S&P500 and Dax futures. We have the US ADP and ISM data out later today that are potential market movers along with Crude Oil inventories.  I don’t see anything really attractive today, I expect the data out later today to dictate how the rest of the trading day goes and positioning ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm payrolls is main driver.

Technical’s

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1463

7489

94.08

791

1.3070

Res 2

1457

7447

93.84

760

1.2990

Res 1

1452

7380

92.60

751

1.2982

Sup1

1432

7250

90.50

718

1.2810

Sup 2

1427

7218

88.83

701

1.2766

Sup 3

1423

7176

87.49

681

1.2654

ATM calls Vols Oct. exp

13.14

17.62

28.41

25.37

9.69

100 EMA

1382

6837

96.34

719

1.2694

200 EMA

1337

6611

98.69

672

1.2816

14 Day avg. Volume

1550K

110K

181K

117K

261K

 

Asian stock markets closed mixed with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.13% and Nikkei 225 down 0.45%. Chinese markets remain closed.

 

VIX closed at 15.71 down 0.61 points yesterday and we are at the higher end of the recent range.

S&P 500 Emini futures – Range bound yesterday and not breaking any significant groud, the weakness from Monday is still in the background that I think will weigh on the markets today as well. If we trade below 1427 support we are in trouble.

Dax futures – Technically we need to trade back above 7380 resistance to open for another rally higher. Volatility in the options market is moving up ahead of Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls data.

Corn – Traded limit up on Friday and next major resistance level is 768 followed by key resistance at 791. Support can be found at 746 and 738 levels.

Crude Oil – Following the bullish reversal last week it looks interesting to buy low volume dips on intraday basis. However the price action over the last 2 sessions have been weak, not sure what to expect out of the Crude Inventory data out later today. Maybe on the sidelines is the best position now or long if you have to do something. Next major resistance is 93.84.

Euro – Trading like a yo-yo last sessions. It looks to me like the European debt crisis will continue to be the negative headline for the Euro and I question if we can get above the 1.3200 resistance level in the near term. Key support is 1.2766 that needs to hold to avoid a bigger sell off.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

14:15     US ADP non-farm employment change (exp. 145k)

16:00     US ISM non manufacturing PMI (exp. 53.2)

 

Contact info:
Per-Erik Karlsson                                           

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

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Posted by on in Uncategorized

Thursday 27th of September 2012 as of 12:00 CET

Yesterday’s was saw further sell off in most markets and the protests as we had violent anti austerity protests in Greece made people nervous. The Spanish debt crisis also made headlines that put focus back on the European debt problems and forces profit taking. Spanish yields moved above 6% again. If the recent price action in the S&P 500 is any guidance this sell off should soon bring out buyers and we go back up. If the bull rally is over then we continue lower today and test the key support at 1414 in S&P500 futures. Equity futures are higher this morning with S&P500 futures up 8 points or 0.60% at the time of writing.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1457

7489

94.08

791

1.3070

Res 2

1443

7447

93.84

760

1.2990

Res 1

1439

7380

91.50

751

1.2927

Sup1

1423

7250

88.95

718

1.2824

Sup 2

1418

7218

87.22

701

1.2766

Sup 3

1414

7176

84.52

681

1.2654

ATM calls Vols Oct. exp

13.70

17.46

30.99

27.63

9.11

100 EMA

1377

6837

92.91

719

1.2612

200 EMA

1336

6611

97.13

672

1.2825

14 Day avg. Volume

1399K

110K

159K

117K

251K

 

Asian stock markets closed higher with Shanghai up 3.06%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.52% and Nikkei 225 up 0.48%.

Stocks Rise With Commodities on China Stimulus Bets; Euro Drops - Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-27/asian-stocks-drop-to-two-week-low-on-growth-concern-won-climbs.html

Dax futures - Held the 7250 support level yesterday by 8 points and have bounced since. The close off the low yesterday does suggest that buyers took control into the close and we could see a bounce today. Technically we need to trade back above 7380 resistance to open for another rally higher. Vols are above the 17% in the options market again.

S&P 500 Emini futures – If the market is strong it will bounce today and hold yesterday’s low of 1423 and close above 1436. If weak, we trade down through 1423, which opens for 1418 next, which is the prior break out level.

The VIX closed up 1.38 points at 16.81 yesterday, which is much higher compared to 13.30 level that we saw last time S&P 500 futures were up at these levels, so that one looks overpriced.

Corn – Approaching the 720 support level and it has come down quite a bit last few sessions. All relates to better yields than anticipated weeks ago. Given the recent huge rally we have seen it is scope to drop to 680 before it looks attractive to test long again.

Crude Oil –  Found support at 89 USD per barrel level yesterday and we are higher by 1.13% today. If we can close above 91.50 level today it would create a bullish reversal on daily chart. Looks interesting to buy low volume dips today I reckon.

Euro – Down on Greek protests and Spanish debt crisis news. If the recent bull move is going to continue it should bounce in the next few sessions above 1.2900 level again. Key support is 1.2766 that needs to hold to avoid a bigger sell off.

We have plenty of US economic data out today that could bring volatility, so make sure to stay tuned.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

14:30     US Core Durable Goods Orders (exp 0.2%)

14:30     US Weekly Jobless Claims (exp 378K)

14:30     US Final GDP q/q (exp 1.7%)

16:00     US Pending Home Sales (exp -0.4%)

 

Contact info:
Per-Erik Karlsson                                           

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

Risk Warning:      

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

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