KBR Capital Partners

Log in   

Login to your account

  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  

KBR Capital Partners Blog

market insight and commentary on futures markets

  • Home
    Home This is where you can find all the blog posts throughout the site.
  • Categories
    Categories Displays a list of categories from this blog.
  • Tags
    Tags Displays a list of tags that have been used in the blog.
  • Bloggers
    Bloggers Search for your favorite blogger from this site.
  • Team Blogs
    Team Blogs Find your favorite team blogs here.
  • Login
    Login Login form

Posted by on in Uncategorized

The Dax and ES (S&P500 emini futures) closed strong after a big gap lower at the open, especially the ES, which opened almost 20 points lower in Asia. Normally large gaps like that tends to be reversed somewhat, but it was very surprising to see the ES close higher on the day and take out the high from Friday at 1700.25.

Crude traded in a relatively large range of 1.56 USD per barrel. It sold off early on and tested key support of 101 and then it rallied back up to 102.62. The quick rebound after making the daily low was a good long opportunity.

 

Stats

Dax futures  - winning % = 60, average trade duration= 3 min and 10 sec, total points =+ 13 points

Crude  - winning % = 100, average trade duration= 7 min and 21 sec, total points = +60 cents

Hits: 2408
0

Posted by on in Uncategorized


Would like to point out a few interesting things about the Dax today. There is a resistance zone from 7186 to 7220 on the Dax futures and we reached a high of 7188 yesterday.

Today the Dax gapped lower at the open at 7142.50 and then rallied up to 7196 and we got the normal short squeeze as it broke yesterday's high of 7188.

However if you compare the volume on the approach towards the high today with the volume profile when it rallied up towards this level yesterday, you can see that it was clearly lower volume today than the volume yesterday.

That tells me that Dax will not likely breakout much higher, because you want to see increasing volume on the approach towards the yesterday's high in order to get a clean powerful break higher.

Therefore today's break higher was a good set up to get short once the market made a toppish formation on the 5 min chart, for a possible 30-35 points profit, with a 10 points stop.

Hits: 2060
0

Posted by on in Uncategorized

Tuesday 23rd of October 2012 as of 12:00 CET

S&P500 futures down by 11 points at 1419 and Dax down 59.50 points at 7264 at the time of writing. The strong bounce into yesterday’s US close looks to be have been a trap move and I see a increasing risk that we will break lower and below the key support of 1416 in the S&P500 futures. However we hold this 1416 level today, we could see a major bounce higher. So all in all we can probably go a good distance in either direction off the current levels. I favour more downside at this point as the market is making lower lows and lower highs over the last week.

 

I repeat my comment from yesterday’s report:

“The major point to have in mind in the current market is that we can go quite some distance both directions I figure.  I don’t think one should look too closely at the underlying economics, because it is the investor sentiment looking forward the will likely dictate the performance over the next 6 months.“

 

Stocks, Commodities Fall as Spain Bonds Decline – Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-23/asia-stocks-advance-as-yen-drops-on-boj-speculation-correct-.html

 

Asian stock markets closed flat to lower with Shanghai down 1.26%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.05% and Nikkei 225 up 0.04%.

 

Today we will see earnings from among others 3M, DU Pont, Facebook, Juniper Networks, UPS, and Xerox

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

 

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1454

7451

93.75

791

1.3183

Res 2

1443

7349

93.09

777

1.3147

Res 1

1437

7295

90.65

768

1.3083

Sup1

1423

7220

88.20

745

1.3016

Sup 2

1416

7183

87.52

735

1.2944

Sup 3

1397

7115

86.40

703

1.2831

ATM calls Vols. nearby month expiration

14.44

16.03

30.46

24.48

8.62

100 EMA

1396

6990

90.28

728

1.2770

200 EMA

1359

6766

87.07

686

1.2892

14 Day avg. Volume

1647K

108K

174K

95K

231K

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – Good bounce yesterday off the 1416 level, but we are down below 1420 again and that is not good, I think we will break lower today. Most likely we will continue to see sellers on rallies at least early part of the week. Key support level is 1416 and 1397. If we break above 1437 resistance we could see another spike higher. Volatility will spike if we break 1416.

The VIX closed down 0.44 points at 16.62 yesterday, which is in the upper end of the last months range.

Dax futures – it failed to close above the 7400 level yesterday and much lower this morning. It looks like we are going to test the last reaction low of 7183 and then we will see what direction the market wants to take from there.

Corn –Key support is now 735 and the next big resistance level is 791 that is the top from 14/9. We have minor resistance at 768 and the previous top from last week at 777. I think buying low volume pullbacks makes sense today.

Crude Oil –Below 93.84 it looks vulnerable to sell the rallies concept. Indeed sold down to test 89.71 support overnight. If the market has any type of strength it should see buyers step in ahead of the 87.52 support level.  

Euro – It was not able to take out the key resistance of 1.3184 so far, the last reaction high. If that level is taken out we will be heading for 1.34. We are also below the previous break out level of 1.3079 and it looks a bit like we will drift lower towards the key support at 1.2948.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

16:00     US Richmond Manufacturing Index (exp. 3)

 

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

Hits: 2288
0